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I mentioned the math for quarterbacks in the Bengals section; in Garrett's case, four of 26 non-QBs taken with the first overall pick since the merger have made it to the Hall. ln the running (40% to 69%): RB Alvin Kamara, DE Cameron Jordan, CB Marshon Lattimore. Green. Greg Rajan is the senior editor for Texas Sports Nation, the Houston Chronicle's sports website, and also curates the daily TXSN newsletter and writes about sports media. Likely (70% to 99%): QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. As long as Willis gets in, Wagner could retire tomorrow and follow his former rival right through the front door. Only two full-time kickers Jan Stenerud and Morten Andersen are in the Hall of Fame, but it would be hard to see Vinatieri shut out given his accomplishments. Hekker got a two-season head start, but he has been a first-team All-Pro four times before turning 30 in February. Early in a player's career, I'm also comfortable using draft status as an estimate of talent until they establish themselves as pros, which will lead to some very inexperienced players making this list. In his final college season, he had a nice 69 receptions for 1,394 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games as a redshirt sophomore. He started his career with seven Pro Bowls in seven seasons, which is rarefied air. Mathieu is a great player and just turned 28, so he still has plenty of time, but he probably needs four or five more Pro Bowl seasons or a DPOY victory to really get in the discussion. His PFR Hall of Fame score of 94.2 ranks ahead of several wide receivers already in the Hall of Fame, including Michael Irvin, Art Monk, Andre Reed and Lynn Swann. (You might remember Mitchell Trubisky in the Pro Bowl in 2018.) McCardell and Smith dubbed "Thunder . Membership Foundation Corporate Partners Artifact Donations Commemorative Brick . Heres what those guys did in their first five seasons and where they rank among all receivers in the age-21-to-25 cohort. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. He has now made three consecutive Pro Bowls, although his only first-team All-Pro nod came in 2017. Regardless of age, Evans has had an impressive start to his career. Both players are on a streak, and their chances depend on keeping that streak going. Work to do (10% to 39%): S Tyrann Mathieu. He figures to have a strong case for first-ballot election. If he recovers and returns to his 2017-18 form, he still has plenty of time to get back on the Canton track, given that he turned 26 this week. The Hall site draws a distinction, interestingly, between wide receivers and ends. Moving to a higher-profile, more successful team will help Ramsey's chances of drawing national attention, although he wasn't close to Stephon Gilmore or Tre'Davious White a year ago. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. The only wide receiver from Carmichael's era who had more TD catches was Paul Warfield, who had 85. Allen was named a Pro Bowler after racking up 10.5 sacks as a rookie. Everyone but Hill is either a lock or extremely likely to make it in. But Thomas rsum with six first team All-Pro selections and 10 Pro Bowl trips helped overcome any shortcomings with team success. Ranking the top outlier contracts You could make a case Jones belongs in the Likely category based on his 2017 and 2019 seasons, although I'd argue there's a significant gap between those two campaigns and the rest of his career. Some players draw more attention after getting traded or signing a big extension, and Buckner did both this offseason. Likely (70% to 99%): QB Russell Wilson, LB Bobby Wagner. As I mentioned with Prescott, Barkley's Offensive Rookie of the Year nod gets him in this category alone. The Hall of Fame receiver responded with a $100 million defamation lawsuit. The shrine in Canton, Ohio, is one that hasnt been easy to gain membership in through the years. As good as third-year receiver Chris Godwin has been for the Bucs this season, its hard to say that hes anything more than the Anquan Boldin to Evans Fitz. Sanders started 16 regular season games at cornerback and another eight at wide receiver - becoming the first two-way starter in the NFL since the Philadelphia Eagles Chuck Bednarik, who retired in 1962. On a weekly basis, Evans is a volatile player, but his year-over-year production has been incredibly consistent. March 25, 2020 9:36 pm ET. Thomas now has three Pro Bowls and two first-team All-Pro nods in four years, and while there might be some sort of drop-off if Brees retires, the Ohio State product did just fine with Teddy Bridgewater on the field in 2019. Five seasons of 100 receptions or more plus a few others that flirted with 100 make Johnson one of the most reliable wide receivers in NFL history. Work to do (10% to 39%): DE Yannick Ngakoue. But history tells us that's a lot to ask. He has been phenomenal while winning one Super Bowl, and came within an interception of winning a second, but he has also never been considered the best quarterback in football or garnered a single MVP vote. He probably needs two more All-Pro seasons to finalize his case. In the running (40% to 69%): WR A.J. Suggs logged 139 sacks, good for eighth all-time. He was a Pro Bowler in 2017 and has 37.5 sacks over his first four pro seasons, but he was overshadowed a bit by Campbell over that time frame. Cliff Branch and Herman Moore are two of the few exceptions, but their performance fell off significantly after their third All-Pro trip and never recovered to their prior level. Harris has four Pro Bowls and a first-team All-Pro appearance in 2016, but his play has slipped over the past couple of years, and smaller cornerbacks typically don't do well after they turn 30. All of these guys have something in their favor, but it isn't enough to propel them to meaningful consideration as of yet. Returning to form and earning a seventh Pro Bowl nod in his first season with the Ravens got Thomas back on track. (1:43), Barnwell: Projecting future Hall of Famers for all 32 NFL teams, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? While Hunter's chances are probably somewhere in the 65% range, Smith is closer to the lower end of the spectrum in the 40% zone. Erica Farber. Brees could have retired five years ago and comfortably made the Hall of Fame. Running backs mean less than they have in the past, but Terrell Davis just made the Hall for what really amounted to a three-season stretch as the best running back in football. He needs only three more years to get to 60,000 passing yards, and if that gets Philip Rivers in, Ryan shouldn't have much trouble. Troy Aikman, John Elway and Roger Staubach won multiple Super Bowls. Gurley was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 and 2018, but he wasn't able to clinch a rushing title and didn't look like his old self last season. In a normal universe, we would be celebrating the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2020 right about now. With Anthony Harris hoovering up interceptions and Jamal Adams and Minkah Fitzpatrick emerging, 31-year-old Smith probably needs to earn that nod in the next year or two. I would put Gronkowski's chance somewhere around 99%. He has made five consecutive Pro Bowls and has three first-team All-Pro nods to go with his Defensive Player of the Year trophy from 2016. He's an easy Hall of Famer. In the running (40% to 69%): DT Ndamukong Suh. He also came up with an interception while winning his first Super Bowl, which helps his case. If he can follow in Patrick Mahomes' footsteps and win a Super Bowl this year, Jackson will have an impeccable rsum to start his career. In one of Coach Saban's press conferences, he spoke about some of the questions asked by the players to . Round 1: Kiper | McShay | NFL Nation Houston probably had the best shot of these four earlier in his career, given that he made four consecutive Pro Bowls and led the league with 22 sacks in 2014, but he hasn't been dominant since dealing with a knee injury between 2015 and 2016. Hall of Fame Wide Receivers. Top-10 picks who make it to the Pro Bowl as rookies have a great track record. Longtime teammate Jeff Bagwell, meanwhile, had to wait until his seventh year on the ballot before gaining enshrinement to Cooperstown. After that, we have players who are Likely to get in, who I estimate have between a 70% and 99% chance of earning induction. Jones is likely to top 13,000 receiving yards and earn his eighth Pro Bowl nod this season, which should be enough to seal things for the superstar wideout. CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND Jones should make up some of that difference in 2020, and after Fitzgerald retires, he should be able to challenge the Cardinals great for that second spot. Contemporaries Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne also made the finalists cut from 15 to 10 with Johnson, but likewise didnt gain election. Matthew Freedman poses and answers the burning question about Evans' future Hall of Fame chances. NFL Nation: Analysis for every pick He is right on the borderline between the "Work to do" and "In the running" tiers. Just play along. Work to do (10% to 39%): WR Keenan Allen, G Trai Turner, DE Melvin Ingram III, CB Chris Harris Jr. Turner has made five consecutive Pro Bowls, but interior linemen typically need multiple first-team All-Pro nods to draw significant Hall interest. The Notre Dame product probably needs a second one to have a viable shot at Canton. He was nearly a lock after making four Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro nods across his first five seasons, but injuries have cost Thomas 20 games over the subsequent four years. . AP Photo/Harold Filan. Wait, Joe Burrow? Williams made seven consecutive Pro Bowls before sitting out the 2019 season and forcing a trade to the 49ers. They both need multiple All-Pro seasons before they can rise up the ranks. The only thing Pouncey is missing is a Super Bowl appearance. Let's run team-by-team and try to estimate each notable player's chances of making it to the Hall of Fame given his current rsum. Watt is off to a dominant start, having racked up 34.5 sacks over three seasons while earning two Pro Bowl nods and a first-team All-Pro berth last season. Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Pro Football Reference Database. Evans is just one of four NFL players ever to have 1,000 yards receiving as a 21-year-old rookie. If James gets back there this season, he might even be able to jump into the Likely category. He deserves it. He doesn't need that sort of individual production to make it to the Hall of Fame, but the guys who made it in without a single first-team All-Pro appearance needed something else. Gordon made it to two Pro Bowls during his five seasons with the Chargers, but injury concerns and fumble woes make it tough to see a Hall of Fame ceiling for the 2015 first-rounder. Outside of that one year, though, he has three Pro Bowl nods, no first-team All-Pro spots and a 2-5 record in the postseason. Buy Seahawks Tickets. Not all elite prospects turn into Hall-of-Famers, but given Evans draft capital, physical profile and college production, its reasonable to say that what hes done in the NFL hasnt been a random fluke. I think he'll end up getting in because he has simply racked up numbers year after year without missing much time, although I could also see an argument that he hasn't done enough outside of that one brilliant year. As a result, I'll mention them often, especially when looking at players who don't touch the ball frequently. In fact, a future Hall of Fame wide receiver recently revealed that Rodgers tried to recruit him over to the Packers. If you think this is too early for the 2019 seventh overall pick, think again. Timing can matter for players, and it has been weird for Suh. James was a first-team All-Pro as a rookie, and while he missed 11 games in 2019 with a foot injury, he should get back on track in 2020. The reason Jackson is in this section and Fuller is in the next group is that Jackson has made two Pro Bowls in three seasons while Fuller has two across six years. Skeptics will point out that Rivers was 5-6 in the postseason and only made it as far as one AFC Championship Game, but he's also sixth in NFL history in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Since 1950, 12 players have won two or more rushing titles. If you need something more, Fitzgerald's 2008 playoff run is probably the best postseason from any receiver in league history. Henry plays a Hall-friendly position and just won a rushing title. Likely (70% to 99%): TE Rob Gronkowski. He led that sports section to three Associated Press Sports Editors top-10 national awards and his work has been honored by APSE and the Texas Associated Press Managing Editors. NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF The 2010 No. The former Panthers quarterback has two other Pro Bowl nods besides that 2015 season, although he hasn't received a nomination since. Hes top-10 in passing yards and touchdowns, so hell get a gold jacket at some point, if not on the first ballot. Unless he really hangs on into his 40s, he'll finish as the second-most-productive tight end in history, behind Tony Gonzalez. Kuechly played just eight seasons with the Panthers from 2012-19, but they were very good ones, with five first team All-Pro selections, seven Pro Bowls and a spot on the All-2010s team. A portion of ticket purchases is a tax-deductible charitable donation to the Museum . Most Approximate Value (AV) in a receiver's best sets of five and seven consecutive seasons, 1960-2019. If the Falcons had held on to their lead and won the Super Bowl, Ryan would have won game MVP, and his 2016 probably would have been enough for a gold jacket. Just six of 32 Hall-eligible winners made it to Canton, although that's going to rise in the years to come as the likes of Charles Woodson and Julius Peppers win enshrinement. Archive: Every podcast from Barnwell . The list of players who have done that isn't long, as it consists of Lawrence Taylor, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Patrick Willis, Aaron Donald and Martin. His 2016 season was one of the most impressive years we've ever seen from a quarterback, as he dominated during the regular season and won league MVP. Mack is entering what is likely to be his final season with the Falcons. Kelce is difficult to judge because tight ends aren't well represented in the Hall. But lack of team success isnt a disqualifier. Erica Farber and Bill Siemering, prominent figures in U.S. commercial radio and public radio, respectively, are among eight new members of the Radio Hall of Fame. Typically, there are between 45 and 50 Hall of Famers playing at any one time. What will define Eric Bieniemy's success? You probably dont need me to tell you that in 2018 Moss became the most recent receiver to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Hes No. podcast, future Hall of Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, aware of the Raiders and Jets being interested in trading for the always-grumbling MVP. At the same time, no tight end in history has more than four 1,000-yard seasons over their respective careers, and Kelce has just run off four consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. When I last attempted something like this column in June 2016, I gave Beckham a 50% chance of making the Hall of Fame after two dominant seasons as a pro. Art Monk. Kiper's draft grades for every team Gates, a former college basketball player, had one of the greatest careers for an undrafted player, logging 16 seasons with the Chargers. In recent years Seattle has gained somewhat of a reputation as being the last stop for future Hall of Fame wide receivers. Elroy 'Crazylegs' Hirsch, future Hall of Fame wide receiver, led the best draft class in Rams history in 1945. The three have career numbers that are comparable, and Holt and Wayne had the good fortune of playing with Hall of Fame quarterbacks (Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning) while winning Super Bowls. Jeremy Fowler polled a panel of more than 50 coaches, execs, scouts and players to come up with top-10 rankings for 2020: QB | RB | TE | WR | OT McCaffrey could turn into LaDainian Tomlinson, but what if he's more like Shaun Alexander, who won league MVP at his peak and never really got serious Hall of Fame consideration? If Kelce can earn that nod in 2020, that might be enough to get him in. Barnwell and friends discuss sports -- usually. Joe Fortenbaugh isn't picking Odell Beckham Jr. to lead the NFL in receiving yards, but he expects Kevin Stefanski's scheme to improve the wide receiver's numbers in 2020. Lock (100%): TE Jason Witten. Martin, who also turns 30 during the season, might not even need another nod. If pro football did what hockey used to and waive the waiting period for the likes of Gordie Howe, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux, it could be argued Brady deserves the same treatment. Marriott has since been ordered by a judge to release footage of Irvin and the woman's altercation and the name of the . Work to do (10% to 39%): QB Kyler Murray, S Budda Baker. While injuries have cost Watt 32 games over the past four seasons, his unprecedented four-season peak from 2012 to 2015 locked up things. Former Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly, ex-Giants quarterback Eli Manning, ex-Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs and longtime Patriots/Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri are the notables on the 2025 ballot. Of all the young receivers, Moss is the only one to accomplish more through the first five seasons of his career. Likely (70% to 99%): CB Richard Sherman. McCaffrey is still only 24 and has a relatively sterling health history, so it's on him to buck history. All HOFm Positions: QBRBWRTEGTCDTDEILBOLBDBKP, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2:32PM. Edelman's case rests entirely on playoff and Super Bowl production. Since 1980, there have been 23 Modern-Era Wide Receivers honored by the Hall of Fame, with an average Legends Score of 29. While the wide receiver logjam is a disaster for Hall of Fame voters, Moss should present a no-brainer case one day as a first-ballot choice. Work to do (10% to 39%): WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, G David DeCastro, DE Cameron Heyward, S Minkah Fitzpatrick. In the running (40% to 69%): OT Trent Williams. Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 4, 2019. 2 with 6,103 yards. These NFL wide receivers do not count toward our list of 10 worthy Hall of Famers. Graham has five Pro Bowls to his name, but I don't think he has done enough to earn a gold jacket. So maybe the best thing for Johnson and Texans fans is to be patient. The two first-time eligible players who stand out on next years ballot are defensive end Julius Peppers and tight end Antonio Gates. Most importantly: This is my opinion of who is likely to get in given current rsums, not who belongs in. I had Wagner as a lock when I first compiled this list. As he turns 30 in September, Gilmore probably needs at least two more seasons in which he has a credible case as the best cornerback in football -- or a really long peak. If Murray breaks out in Year 2, he'll be on the fast track. Work to do (10% to 39%): QB Joe Burrow. I'll do a little bit of projecting here and there, given historical aging curves and what we know about each player's injury history, but this is almost entirely about what each player has done so far. The only exceptions are a pair of interior offensive linemen (Alan Faneca and Steve Wisniewski) and safety John Lynch. He turned 32 on Friday, and while there could be more left in the tank, he probably needs another Pro Bowl season or two to ensure he makes it. More on the Ring of Honor found on the team website. Xavien Howard made the Pro Bowl in 2018 and would be the best candidate, but he has missed an average of six games per season across his four pro campaigns. Jaguars won't spend big, but here are five players they could target in free agency, 2023 NFL franchise tag tracker: Raiders tag Josh Jacobs, the NFL's rushing leader. No promotions available. Tucker is only nine years in, and while he can kick for a long time if he stays healthy, asking anyone in the NFL to do anything for 13 more seasons is risky. In the running (40% to 69%): QB Lamar Jackson, CB Marcus Peters, K Justin Tucker. I believe Evans will be in the NFL Hall of Fame someday, and in this piece I hit on a few of the reasons for my position. 7 overall in the 2014 draft at the age of 20. Ngakoue has deserved more attention and might get it in a new locale if the Jaguars honor his request and trade the 25-year-old before the season begins. Work to do (10% to 39%): TE George Kittle, DE Nick Bosa. Pro Football WR Hall of Fame Monitor The Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFm) is a metric designed to estimate a player's chances of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame using AV, Pro Bowls, All-Pros, championships, and various stat milestones. On Saturday night, Eagles star Harold Carmichael and Rams star Isaac Bruce were inducted as part of a . Every two-time winner got in easily, so while Watt might not have the longevity he hoped for, the Houston icon could retire tomorrow and get in. He also has worked at the Austin American-Statesman and Temple Daily Telegram. Even so, I think hell eventually get there. Peters might look better in the long term than he does now. That's just about a magic formula for getting into the Hall. Jalen and Reggie Wayne connected while he was in college, and his uncle has helped him every step of the way since. He ranks seventh all-time in receiving touchdowns (116), 30th in yards (11,841) and 17th in receptions (955). The former LSU corner was already a star on the field after his 2018 campaign, but getting that first nod is usually tougher than getting invited back. If Evans goes his entire career without gaining widespread notoriety or making a memorable run in the playoffs even if he has a long and steadily productive career and is regarded as one of the top receivers of his generation his chances to make the Hall of Fame will be materially diminished. With three rushing titles, a 2,000-yard season and an MVP award in his trophy room, Peterson will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. With five consecutive first-team All-Pro appearances, he could retire tomorrow and get in without any questions. That means Robinson (who is coming off . The site navigation utilizes arrow, enter, escape, and space bar key commands. Julio or Hopkins: Who's the better bet to lead in receiving? Work to do (10% to 39%): WR Davante Adams, OT David Bakhtiari, LB Za'Darius Smith. He had a wasted 2019 season, as he went down with a high ankle sprain in Week 3 and averaged 3.2 yards per carry over his next seven games after returning, but 2020 should see Barkley return to form. Locks have a 100% chance of making it. Baker was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 and a two-time Pro Bowler, although his 2017 awards were for special-teams work, which isn't valued as highly by voters. Work to do (10% to 39%): QB Baker Mayfield, DE Myles Garrett. Itll be interesting to see if that stellar stretch is good enough to get him in Canton. Edelman's career as a starter really didn't begin until he was 27, so while his case is built on postseason performance, I still don't think he has the regular-season production needed to supplement a case. Browns star left tackle Joe Thomas and Jets greats Joe . If that seems surprising after what he accomplished last season, remember that it was his first season with either a Pro Bowl or an All-Pro nod. In the running (40% to 69%): DE Chandler Jones. To use an example, I don't think Eli Manning has the rsum of a Hall of Fame quarterback, but history tells us that most quarterbacks who win two Super Bowls typically get in. The first game of the 2023 NFL calendar is . I think Patrick Willis is going to make it in after an eight-year career in which he racked up seven Pro Bowl appearances and five first-team All-Pro nods and retired as he turned 30. Work to do (10% to 39%): WR Julian Edelman, LB Dont'a Hightower, S Devin McCourty. He has made five consecutive Pro Bowls and has a first-team All-Pro appearance. That's three Hall of Famers, two locks, and Martin, who would be a lock if the Hall valued interior linemen. Once again, its wait til next year for Texans great Andre Johnson when it comes to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Lock (100%): LB Von Miller. Work to do (10% to 39%): WR T.Y. The suspension hurts Peterson's chances, but with eight Pro Bowls and three All-Pro appearances across his first eight seasons, his prior track record was impeccable. Hes too similar to other Hall-of-Famers and future Hall-of-Famers not to be taken seriously. Hekker's case is interesting. Work to do (10% to 39%): QB Jared Goff, OT Andrew Whitworth, P Johnny Hekker. If Wagner makes it to another Pro Bowl or two, I don't think Willis' status will matter. Itll be interesting to see if his postseason prowess carries him, as it arguably did Lynn Swann in his eventual election. Minnesota Vikings Ring of Honor. Even if he slows down from here on out, Miller's going to the Hall. That wide receiver is Detroit Lions great Calvin Johnson. Panthers impressed by Derek Carr visit Smith-Schuster had a down 2019 season amid injuries and terrible quarterback play; he should bounce back to his 1,426-yard form from 2018. It might seem surprising to put Hill this high, but he has made it to four Pro Bowls and been a first-team All-Pro twice across his first four seasons. Barr made four consecutive Pro Bowls from 2015 to 2018, but it'll be tough for him to get the first-team All-Pro votes he'll need for Canton without racking up significant sack totals. Six players have done that since the merger: Murray, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, George Rogers, Billy Sims and Earl Campbell. Gates numbers compare very favorably with those of the nine tight ends in the Hall. So Johnson still has plenty of time for his credentials to be debated by the 49-person selection committee. Carmichael was one of the best wide receivers of his era. Gronk has five first-team All-Pro appearances. Elliott has already won two rushing titles across his first four seasons, and that might be enough on its own. Beasley won a sack title. to put up the accumulation stats often needed to bolster a Hall-of-Fame case. You could also make the argument that Murray should be up a level after being taken with the No. Both Bosa and Kittle could make this tier placement look stupid if they have big seasons in 2020. Try selecting a different location. What makes Evans production especially impressive is that he entered the league at such a young age. Only nine players have done that in league history; outside of Green, the only player of the bunch who isn't in the Hall of Fame or a lock to get in is offensive tackle Richmond Webb, who played a much less notable position.