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The Seahawks are getting more exciting. ". Hill makes far fewer mistakes than Winstonwho threw 30 interceptions last season and somehow still led the league in interceptions that should have been thrown. This week, The Wall Street Journal detailed that, statistically, the Chargers have by far the most horrible losses in the sport. BILLS PICK-SIX ON BIG BEN (via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/JNpevUSAOw. Gibbs RB from bama to pair up with white would be awesome. The Hurts-led version of the Eagles is clearly better and has a very high watchability ceiling. A.J. Murray has the most pass attempts in the league on RPOs and is second to Lamar Jackson in rushing attempts by a quarterback. The Chargers have visited the red zone less than almost any other team this season. Injuries have dealt a huge blow to the Niners watchability and their success. I am sure the effect is small (we are only talking about a yard or two here) but all the effects here are small and the sample size is large. No, running on all three downs from the 1 doesn't result in touchdowns 90.4% of the time. In reply to Re: A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone by Perfundle, "No, running on all three downs from the 1 doesn't result in touchdowns 90.4% of the time. All Rights Reserved. This writing shows that you have great writing skills.. well done, I want to make a good looking website like yours. In reply to Re: A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone by RickD. The number in seconds from the snap of the ball to when the QB releases the ball or leaves the pocket. You cant predict a 60-yard touchdown in the same way you can a 5-yarder, yet 60-yard touchdowns are increasingly common in this era of football. Terry McLaurin is one of the NFLs best young receivers. Teddy Bridgewater is absolutely the quarterback we thought he is: 2nd best in avoiding negatively graded plays, 3rd worst in generating positively graded plays. Its not all bad. Red Zone Offense. Or does luck and regression to the mean dominate results inside the 20? But because theyve been so decimated by injuries, I do not want them on my television. Diggs is right that the Vikings prefer a more conservative style, but they can be watchable in spurts, which is the point of this list. It would be good news for the Denver Broncos, a team that has had twice as many fumbles (two) than touchdowns (one) in the red area. PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts. How Do We Solve This Crisis? Mayfield is 6-6 as a starter and hell have to settle for being hyped up for the next nine months. This is not only the worst rate in the league, but it seems impossible. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw had a team-high eight red zone touchdowns - six receiving and two rushing - before a broken leg in Week 11 ended his 2014 season. 2022 Red Zone Stats Passing Receiving Rushing Red zone snaps per game in Weeks 1-3 explains around 9 percent of the variance in rest-of-season red zone snaps per game. Well, were laughing now, but we might laugh in a good way. Instead, offenses generally either score or get stopped. Nowhere does that distinction become more important than inside the red zone, where the Colts have only been able to find three passing touchdowns despite ten times that many passing plays. All Rights Reserved. Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) - Prescott is a red-zone dual threat. The Dolphins create fun. The graph below shows each team since 2002. 2015 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 46.15 Denver has averaged 3.2 red zone scoring attempts per game, which is tied for 10th in the league, but has only come away with 1.48 red zone. And he still threw for 351 yards.Rams had 253 yards after the catch - second most by any team in a game this season.That was a coaching clinic on how to make life easier for your QB. When they have been there, they have been a pretty balanced offense, rushing the ball five fewer times than they have passed it, and scored five times on the ground and through the air. When the author is writing "The standard selection of plays on first through third down from the 1 results in a touchdown 88.9 percent of the time, but running on all three downs increases this to 90.4 percent -- a small but not insignificant difference," only pedantry can show that he's wrong. Justin Herbert looks like hes going to be one of the leagues best passers for years to come, but hes been surrounded by so many little disasters that he not only doesnt win, he aggressively loses. .531/.584 =.909, In reply to Re: A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone by Jeremy (not verified). On the other side, the Browns went 19 for 39 (49%, -1.7) on offense and allowed 31 touchdowns on 46 red zone trips (67%, -6.6) on defense, making Cleveland -8.3 for the year. I think you could teach it to scrambling quarterbacks, for when they run out of bounds. But, what the heck, I'll go one further. I would like to know if the 10-to-go result was statistically significant (it probably is, given 11 years of play-by-play). That said, there is something to that cringing feeling that we get from the running back described above. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. It is an action movie with almost no dialogue and more explosions. NFL Red Zone Stats - Quarterbacks Weeks 1 to 17 (2022) What is the Red Zone in football? But should teams that find themselves in either situation on fire in the red area or ice-cold expect things to continue as the season wears on? The Chargers do things like this: Ladies and gentlemen, the Los Angeles Chargers pic.twitter.com/sB6XiCttff, QB IS SNEAKING WHEN O-LINE IS DROPPING IN PASS PROFIRE EVERYONE pic.twitter.com/633syvqRNr. Theyve also gotten much, much better. Based on "Except at the opponents 1-yard line, a passing play is typically preferable to running on any given play," I'm pretty certain blue is running and red is passing. Patrick Mahomes Earned A Huge Raise. A few years ago, NFL Networks RedZone host, Scott Hanson, told me that because offenses can score from anywhere on the field now, the channel has had to get more precise in how and when to present each touchdown. They are the perfect cocktail of football entertainment. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? The Falcons had a 99.9% win probability against the Cowboys and lost.The Falcons had a 99.6% win probability against the Bears and lost.Back to back weeks. And, of course, New England went 13-3, for a 0.813 winning percentage. The rest of the NFL is 68-356-1 (.160) combined when trailing by 10+ points during that same period. The only entertainment here is the subtext. Please disable your ad blocker to view the video content. we are going to finish with Touchdowns in the Red Zone (fire them cannons - twice) Mike C Says . Honestly, thats a new low. Denver finally got off the red zone schneid against the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday, when running back Melvin Gordon ran through a Fred Warner tackle for a late fourth-quarter touchdown. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. Typically, teams with a first-and-goal from inside the 10 score a touchdown 64 percent of the time. 2021 NFL Team Red Zone Stats. The only joke that remains is the franchise itself. On the bright side, Miami looks like a team that wont lose all of its early gains. Touchdowns per Game. How do you put this info to good use? Las Vegas leads the NFL with 13 field goals from 20 to 29 yards. (LJS file photo) What are the most memorable Husker touchdowns for every yard on the field, from 1 to 100? Since then, they have changed quarterbacks, cities, and coaches. Drew Lock leads the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempthes the only QB averaging over 9 yards per attempt. second, I think you would take away the chance of breaking a tackle and scoring. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. All-time touchdown pass leader (including playoffs): 603 touchdowns, set on Dec. 9, 2018 Most touchdown passes with one team (including playoffs): 603 touchdowns All-time total. Early season red zone snaps are a much better predictor of future red zone snaps than early season EPA per play in the red area predicts future red zone EPA per play.3 In other words, if you want to know how productive a team will be in the red zone going forward, its probably better to know how many chances it has had, not how efficient it has been. Enter your email and we'll send you exclusive predictions and analysis. Join our linker program. New England had 70 red zone trips and scored on 42 of them, for a 60% rate. I would imagine that play-action and QB draws on supposed rushing and passing situations are more successful than the average pass or run, but only if they're used judiciously. Still, Arizona plays an appealing brand of football. Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com Additionally, having a first-and-10 from the opponents 11 is only marginally better (3.8 percent higher probability of scoring a touchdown) than a first-and-goal from the 10. In the second diagram is running blue and passing red? The Chiefs' red zone offense is one trick after another, and the Eagles have to be ready for anything By Ben Volin Globe Staff,Updated February 11, 2023, 8:51 a.m. Maybe a double box. Cam Newton had nine rushing touchdowns on 23 carries from inside his opponents' 10-yard lines. What Is Touch Percentage In Red Zone? Arguably the NFL's best receiver in 2021 in any category, Kupp led the group of 25 receivers in red-zone targets (38), receptions (27), yards (209), touchdowns (13) and open targets (30). Previous post: Average Length of Passing Touchdown (Updated Through 2017), Next post: Red Zone Performance Since 2002. Although they are a generally pleasant team to watch, Ben Roethlisberger is simply very limited in what he can do. This is not only the worst rate in the league, but it seems impossible. Among regular starters, that is behind only Newton. A lead isnt a lead against the Chiefs, and thats why they are incredible to watch. Thats exciting. Tennessees offense is a run heavy unit anyway, but that goes even more pronounced once they hit the red zone. Zeke Elliott, who signed a six-year, $90 million deal through 2026, has been brutal this year (his dead cap is just $6.7 million in 2023, so they can cut him relatively painlessly then). They have six rushing scores and six passing, with Josh McCown proving to be efficient inside the 20 as well as overall this season. While his career production is modest at best 326 receiving yards and three touchdowns in 2022 he does have the size and skill to become a consistent red zone threat in the NFL. They are one of only two teams to have ten or more rushing scores from inside the red zone, and the only one of those teams (New Orleans) to be able to match that total in passing scores. It is hard to believe that the Texans played one of the most entertaining games of the calendar year in a wild win over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in last seasons wild-card game. Im OK with this team in a triple box. That was indicative of the overall rule for teams with rough red zone starts: Just like with the teams who started off the season hot inside the 20, cold teams also tend to revert to league-average play over the course of the season. Theyll take that. Oops. That was the second-worst in the league ahead of only the Broncos (-8.7), and the Browns of course went 0-16. But you cant see that on a play-to-play basis, which makes them a terrible RedZone team. The Cincinnati Bengals have had their fair share of offensive woes this season, with the team struggling on the offensive line and with Andy Dalton unable to play at his best because of it. Whats interesting is that while there is an obvious increase over the course of pro football history, the rate has been relatively steady over the last five decades: So over the last 20 years, it may be that shorter passing touchdowns are just replacing shorter rushing touchdowns, which would explain why the percentage of red zone touchdowns (relative to all offensive touchdowns) has been constant while the percentage of red zone passing touchdowns (relative to all passing touchdowns) has been rising. Moving the ball between the 20-yard lines in todays NFL is one thing, but it becomes a different game inside the red zone, so its time to focus our rankings on that aspect of the game. In reply to Re: A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone by Anonymous_me (not verified). His 11 touchdowns this season nearly doubled his . Jerry Rice has scored the most career total touchdowns, with 208 touchdowns. So The Chiefs Got Creative With Their Roster-Building. From 2002 to 2017, teams scored a touchdown on 53% of all red zone trips. A fine team with great players. This is a team, mind you, that is so popular that even in its putrid condition, it commanded the seasons biggest television audience for its Thanksgiving game. It may be factually accurate, but it's deliberately misleading in order to artifically emphasize the point. The Eagles Played Their A-Game, But The Chiefs Had Patrick Mahomes, The Super Bowl Halftime Shows With The Most Star Power. Edgy analysis, and 24/7 Bucs football news on JoeBucsFan.com. This is entertaining but not visually appealing. This season the Eagles have used 27 more of these plays than any other team, and it allows QB Carson Wentz to simplify his reads and stretch defenses schematically. The higher the percentage of red zone touchdowns to overall offensive touchdowns, the more important red zone performance becomes. Only the Denver Broncos at 37.5 percent have been worse at turning trips inside its opponent's 20-yard . That wasnt just the most in the NFL. Please disable your ad blocker to view the video content. Penn State didn't emphasize him in the passing game, so whether . They are getting less normal. Colin, I would like to see a breakdown of running & passing plays on a separate chart, along with success rates by particular play choice. At first glance, this hardly tells us anything we dont know about todays NFL. Last year, they completed seven touchdown passes inside their opponents' 20-yard line, fewest in the league, and ranked 24th in red-zone scoring overall. And while Denver clearly should work on trying not to fumble the ball at the goal line, it should also boost its snap total to near those of the league leader through three weeks: The 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars. However, if the play can be assumed to achieve a positive result - either gain two yards or score - on each of first and second down, the probability of scoring a touchdown increases to 74.6 percent if a running play is called on third down, or 70.7 percent if a passing play is called. This is a tough one. Average Length of Passing Touchdown (Updated Through 2017), Red Zone Performance Makes Up About 19% Of A Teams Record, The History of Black Quarterbacks in the NFL (2023 Update), Brock Purdy Looks To Make Quarterback Super Bowl History, Zach Wilson and The Worst Passer Rating In The NFL, The Eagles Rushing Offense Is Better Than Their Opponents Passing Offense. Coming in with nine rushing touchdowns in the red zone is Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. Hey, this is a point that does not undercut the overall point of the article, but isn't there a selection bias in the data in the first chart? #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/baPz5D57qK. NFL exile Carson Wentz could crawl his way onto a Super Bowl contender in 2023. He threw 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; he's eclipsed 12 picks just once in his career, in 2008. The Hinton game, through no fault of his, was an unwatchable mess. There have been just 22 scores inside the. But this list cares. 2023 NFL Combine: Tight End Rankings. To make it go from the friend zone to the end zone. This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Last year I wrote: The Baltimore Ravens are the only NFL team to score on over half of their drives. Every huge mistake the franchise has made in the last few years hangs over them like a fog. HuskerExtra revisits the Lincoln Journal-Star's 2016 series on the 100 greatest touchdowns in Nebraska football history. CHASE YOUNG. Coan is PFF's highest-graded passer, fourth in passing yards (374), tied for first in passing touchdowns (four), first in big-time throws (five) and first in completion percentage (68.3%). For now, its mostly Teddy Bridgewater playing mistake-free football and little else. At least Matt Rhules smock shakes things up. Two Point Conversions per Game. The Miami Dolphins offense is pretty bad right now, and their biggest issue is getting down to the red zone at all. Theres also this keeping the Cardinals out of the top 10: DeAndre Hopkins route tree over his last three games has been limited pic.twitter.com/dQzK9ZQtbV. In addition to ranking 14th in red-zone pass attempts, Prescott also rushed 19 times for 72 yards and chipped in six touchdowns on the ground, which ranked second among all NFL signal-callers. Rest-of-season expected points added (EPA) per play for NFL teams that started the season with a red zone EPA per play between -0.80 and -0.50 in their first three games, 2016-2021, plus the 2022 Denver Broncos. Brown with an UNREAL catch ( : @Titans pic.twitter.com/DTPF3Roz7T). Will Tashaun Gipson Remain in San Francisco? : @MattHintonPhoto pic.twitter.com/8Lj71bdluJ. I'd wager that the conditional probability of scoring a TD on third down by a running play from the 1 yard line, conditioned on having tried two prior running plays from exactly that spot, and failed both times, is considerably lower than the general conditional probability of scoring a TD on third down by a running play from the 1 yard line. That defense destroying dudes is fun. The probability of the average run from the 1 succeeding on first down, plus the probability of the average run from the 1 succeeding on second down after gaining zero yards on the first run, plus the probability of the average run from the 1 succeeding on third down after gaining zero yards on the second run, is 90.4%. But inside the opponents red zone, things start to get hazy. A bonus: The stadium legitimately looks cool on television! Tryna take it to the house baby let's go. They are one of only two teams in the league not to have a rushing score inside the red zone, but they have put up twelve passing touchdowns from there. Printed from TeamRankings.com - 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. container homes for sale in puerto rico; can chickens eat loquats; cook county, illinois genealogy trails; tony gwynn vs greg maddux Give it a try, it's free! Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Since coming in to replace him, Brett Hundley has a pair of passing scores in the red zone, but the majority of his big plays have come further away from the goal line. The Bengals had a real chance to get out of it and into watchability when they selected Joe Burrow first overall. Davante Adams leads the NFL in receptions inside the 10, catching 81 percent of his passes. Despite only winning two games, the Jets red zone offense wasnt as bad as their awful -0.80 EPA per play start made them seem, and they improved by over 0.5 EPA per play as the season went along. Stefon Diggs now revealing that he demanded out of Minnesota because they over-committed to the run and I love Stefon Diggs now https://t.co/RsWHcBb2nU pic.twitter.com/NRlX2PG0o0. Jabrill Peppers is my favorite player on the defense. A by-product of all of those big-play scores though is that they havent been in the red zone all that often by comparison. All Rights Reserved. Or perhaps red zone plays simply represent a small sample relative to a teams overall snap count,2 creating the perfect conditions for fluky early results that get evened out later. You should watch Deshaun Watson every time he drops backsomething special can always happenbut his franchise has stacked the deck against him. The Jets score a touchdown on 40 percent of their red-zone trips. It's all deep sideline shots and underneath stuff. Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Pro Football Reference Database. (10 parts per hundred is 5 parts per hundred greater then 5 parts per hundred). On defense, Pittsburgh has playmakers like Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt to spice things up, but they dont offset how unfun it is to see Big Ben hobbling around. 14 passing scores is second in the league, while seven rushing touchdowns is tied for seventh, but this team has run 17 more plays from the red zone than any other side in the NFL. Picks, tools and data that give you an edge in NFL survivor and knockout style pools. Chicago isnt last on this list because a late-season Mitchell Trubisky run, potentially forcing the Bears to bring him back, would actually be one of the most entertaining things of the season. Per The Wall Street Journal in January 2020: On 53 plays this season, Seattles win probability in a given game either increased or decreased by at least 15 percent. . The Carolina Panthers offense has the potential to be a true nightmare to defend, but Cam Newton has blown hot and cold this season, while their use of rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel has yet to reach peak creativity. Once an offense has a first down inside the 5-yard line, the end zone has to be the goal of every play. They have a long way to go, however, to be anything other than mediocre. I award the Jaguars points for such a transparent tank that almost anything good they do is an accident. The red zone is the areas of the field between the 20 yard line and the goal line. Their heavy use of run/pass-option plays also gives them a boost that other teams dont get. One area that will be of concern for a Lions team that wants to continue to surprise and win games is their red zone inefficiency. Let me touchdown I'mma get it. What is the percentage of TDs scored in the NFL from outside the Red Zone? . His deep passing problems late in this season are well documented. When Hanson or host of DirecTVs RedZone, Andrew Siciliano, does cut to the Giants, theres always a chance that Jones is about to fumble, which he does at a historic rate. Coincidentally, the top six scoring RBs all had double-digit rushing touchdowns in the red zone last season. Expect the Colts to use Gore in a . An offense facing first-and-goal with 10 yards to the opponents end zone typically has the lowest probability of scoring a touchdown. In 2018, the Browns were ranked no. Last year, I wrote of the Eagles: Not just bad, boring. They are still bad, but they are no longer boring. Through this opportunity-based view of red zone success, Miamis 20 total snaps good for 21st in the NFL dont look quite so great. The more red zone carries a player receivers, the higher their chances are at scoring a . People will think they'll get slightly more potato chips that previous cans held. It is, in short, perfect. Josh Whyle . "Legendary trash talker Philip Rivers turns 39 today (via @NFLFilms) pic.twitter.com/Xz15UEoaro. Meanwhile, Tim Tebow was 4-of-7 (57.1 percent) in the. Bill OBrien spent the last few years misunderstanding value and talent until Watson was left basically alone on offense. Aren't teams with better offenses more likely to get first downs closer to the end zone? Brown and Derrick Henry can do basically anything they want at any time. If Rodgers does come back, Gutekunst said it would be "fair to stay" the team will need . Expected Points Added (7). The Eagles are one of the games best offenses, so its no surprise to see them maintain those standards once they hit the red zone. no. Additionally, he managed to put up 73 receiving yards for the team. He was Detroit's leading rusher on the season, and always dependable. Converting field goals is a great luxury, but touchdowns are better. . The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. The two most important days of your life, the saying goes, is the day youre born and the day you figure out why. One possible explanation for this odd finding is that this difference is a result of the unlikelihood of getting a first down at or inside the 1-yard line. The Minnesota Vikings continue to be better than they were supposed to be on offense, with Case Keenum having a career-year throwing to arguably the leagues best wide receiver pairing in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. But no description can match seeing it for oneself: Since the start of 2019, the Chiefs are now 8-1 (.888) with Patrick Mahomes at QB after falling behind by 10+ points. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Like the Falcons, the Lions reliably blew games to the point that you couldnt keep your eyes off them. If you expect that a running play will gain one yard or score from the 5 and then pass on third down from the 3-yard line, the probability of scoring a touchdown is only 58.9 percent -- in other words, the offense with a below-average running game would be significantly better off passing three times from the 5. The Eagles will need to be on. Derek spoke with Matthew Biel of MedStar Georgetown University Hospital about rising teenage unhappiness and what we can do to fix it, the Chargers had a 1-in-30 million odds of losing all four of those games, How the 2023 NFL Draft Class Stacks Up to Years Past, GM and Coach Secrets From the NFL Combine, The Mandalorian Season 3 Episode 1 Deep Dive, The Biggest Questions About the Seasons Stretch Run, KDs Suns Debut, Load Management, and Five-Year Anniversary of the Rockets-Clippers Tunnel Debacle. Brees will likely return at some point and bring a higher level of competence to a team with exciting players like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. The NFL's 10 least aggressive passers vs. 10 most aggressive (number is % of throws where a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of pass), per NGS.Interesting so many effective scramblers (Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Darnold, Murray) are among first group pic.twitter.com/zN27Jc8brm. Michigan has been able to get into . Now wed take them to Kansas City. On the other hand, running three times from the 5 seems like it would be a worse choice. This team has run significantly more often than they have passed, but they have scored just five rushing touchdowns compared to nine through the air. The most popular Buccaneers blog on earth. But thats simply not enough to get anyone excited when this team is on the channel. TCU's Jalen Reagor in 2020 was the most recent. Last year, the Patriots were the best team in the red zone. It is not possible to measure TDs in a way to make them worth less than 6 points, unlike products, which be measured in multiple ways, eg, "This product is sold by weight, not by volume. Needs a legend. Jared Goff and the high-octane Rams offense has been a pretty good unit between the 20s, hitting scores from deep down the field, but they have also had more than their fair share of attempts in the red zone. And the luckiest pass of the week has to be Mike Glennon's turnover-worthy TD pic.twitter.com/ADDQVDKvfy. There is an unpredictability to everything the Titans do, coupled with the fact that A.J. They have been more prolific from a passing standpoint in the red zone, and no team as has many passing scores from inside the 20 this season. That is a touchdown rate of 39.1 percent. Here are five cornerbacks the Lions should watch at the combine. They have just one rushing touchdown in the red zone, and the heavy lifting has been done almost entirely by the passing game. Subscribe to the NFL YouTube channel to see immediate in-game highlights from your favorite teams and players, daily fantasy football updates, all your favor. In the past few years, the Jets have, at times, been. Customized picks for NFL and college football pickem contests (weekly and season long). Red Zone stats are important for fantasy football because The quarterbacks who are not on the roster make everything about the Bears quarterback situation funnier. He plays for Delaware Valley (Milford, PA). Of the 61 offensive touchdowns scored in Week 6, 39 of them (64%) came from within the 20-yard line, bringing the season total to 293 of 402 (73% . DeShaun Watson still accounts for all of Houstons 13 passing touchdowns in the red zone, and the Houston offense really is two completely different units when he has played this season compared to when he has not. His eyes. Todd Gurleys resurgence continues across the board, including down inside the 20. Thats just absolutely a new low. New lows are a recurring theme for the Cowboys this year. Baker Mayfield has had six games with fewer than 200 yards passing, which is partly attributable to the weather Cleveland has played in, and partly due to a change in their style of play. That 57.6 percent clip ranks 85th in the nation. This is where Michigan Football's offense finds itself nine games into its 2021 campaign. 53.1% is 9.1(%) less than 58.4%. Daniel Jones has lost 52 yards in sacks and fumbled 3 times. So if event A happens with 25% chance and event B with 50% chance, you'd say that event B is 50-25 = 25% more likely to happen?